Everyone wants to buy a home — but entering the Canadian housing market in this economy is more difficult than most Canadians expected
Dive into the complexities of the Canadian housing market with our latest episode of "Smart Advice," where we explore the challenging landscape of real estate affordability, market dynamics, and government policies.
In this episode, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, Benjamin Tal dissects the ongoing affordability crisis, stagnating market trends, and the anticipated impacts of governmental and economic shifts on both buyers and investors.
Whether you're a homeowner, potential buyer, or investor, this episode offers invaluable insights into navigating the uncertainties of the Canadian housing market and preparing for upcoming financial challenges and opportunities.
Tune in to gain expert advice and stay informed about the future of real estate in Canada.
[04:09] Benjamin: “This is not a mild recession. This is a major crisis when it comes to affordability.“
[06:46] Benjamin: “We have to realize that we need much more supply of rental units in order to tackle this affordability crisis that we're facing.”
[10:25] Benjamin: “With no demand and supply still in the market, I see the condo space relatively soft. After that we get to see it's starting to go down and no supply in the market, you will see investors going back into the market, but that will be a year from now, two years from now.”
[12:59] Benjamin: “It seems that the Bank of Canada is overshooting by design. They want to make sure that inflation is dead before they cut interest rates and there are very good signs when it comes to inflation.”
[20:59] Benjamin: “So what do you want to do? Well, it depends on your situation, of course, depends on your risk appetite. But in general, it would be not a bad idea to try to buy time to take a short term mortgage, namely one, maybe two years mortgages by the time and then ride the variable rate mortgages later and take advantage of the fact that the trajectory would be downward as opposed to upward.”
Benjamin Tal is a prominent Canadian economist and the Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, one of Canada's leading banks. With years of experience in economic analysis and financial forecasting, Benjamin is widely recognized for his expertise in analyzing macroeconomic trends and their implications for the global and Canadian economies.
At CIBC, he plays a crucial role in advising both the bank and its clients on economic developments and investment strategies. His analytical skills and deep understanding of economic intricacies make him a respected figure in the financial community.
Learn more about Benjamin through CIBC.
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Carissa Lucreziano: Welcome to Smart Advice, a podcast connecting you with real financial advice, investment strategies and economic trends. Empowering you with insights you need to make smart decisions about your money. I'm CIBC’s financial advice expert Carissa Lucreziano.
Today we're discussing how prospective buyers, homeowners, and investors can navigate the changing landscape of the Canadian real estate market. Many Canadians are confident that home ownership is still a great investment despite challenging market conditions. However, affordability continues to be a major concern. A CIBC poll from April found that 76% of Canadians who don't own property, say homeownership feels like a stretch and out of reach with what they feel is an overpriced market and one of the biggest barriers is the inability to save for a down payment.
Regardless of these challenges, home ownership continues to be a priority and goal for Canadians today. The ripple effects of factors like inflation, interest rates and mortgage renewals are also being felt by homeowners and investors. Millions of mortgages in Canada are coming up for renewal in the next two years, with many facing higher renewal rates. The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 5% in its most recent announcement on April 10.
But experts say rate cuts could start as early as June. And within that there is still debate on if that could be too early. There are many moving parts in the real estate market and Canadians are continuing to try to plan around and make decisions while trying to figure out what's in store for the rest of 2024 and into next year.
Joining me today is Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist with CIBC and my colleague, Ben was a guest on Season One of our podcast in June of last year, where we discussed the merits of renting versus buying. This episode was so popular that I have invited him back for season two to talk to us about the current state of the housing market in Canada.
This is such an important topic with Canadians as we are all trying to navigate what the economic future holds, and how this will impact our financial decisions and in reaching our own financial goals. Ben, thank you so much for coming back.
Benjamin Tal: My pleasure. Thank you.
Carissa: So let's start with the current state of the Canadian housing markets. In a CIBC report from October, you said Canada needs to, I quote, “Wake up to the housing affordability crisis we're facing.” Now based on the benchmark home prices. The average home in Canada is down by only 11% since its peak in early 2022.
But it's still 38% above its pre pandemic levels. I think many are coming to terms with you know, we're not going back to pre pandemic levels for average home prices. But based on the huge run up in prices in general. Does that not mean Canadians can expect a correction?
Benjamin:Yes, that's a very good question. And the market is slowing down. The market has slowed down over the past year. But it's really not even denting the affordability crisis that we have seen developing before COVID. And obviously, during COVID, then it's not going to unfortunately. So I'm very concerned about it. We have a generation of Canadians that cannot even dream about owning a house.
I had the opportunity to meet with the cabinet, the government, a few months ago. And I told them, If we don't treat this crisis as a crisis, as an emergency, we are going to see quite frankly, and I'm not saying it lightly, pockets of civil unrest, we're going to see renters strike, we are going to see anti immigrant sentiments.
We have to wake up and realize that a generation of Canadians simply cannot even dream about owning the house, we have to fix it. We have to increase supply in a very significant way and treat it as a crisis, the way we treated COVID as a crisis, we have to really wake up here, because this is not a mild slowdown. This is not a mild recession. This is a major crisis when it comes to affordability.
Carissa: Yeah, and I was speaking to some family friends last weekend, a couple with a young baby. And their household income is quite good, professionals. And you know, both of them said to me, we were talking about, you know, the housing market, they said they've come to the realization that they will probably never own a home. And he said to me, you know, not really from an affordability on a monthly cash flow basis. But how can we save for a down payment because of how long it takes.
So the federal budget for 2024 had a focus on making housing more affordable in Canada. It doesn't seem like it's enough to make an impact, but more specifically needs to be done in your opinion.
Benjamin: Yes, it's not even close, although I must admit that governments are on levels are much more open to the idea that something has to be done, there is more openness to change policies in a very significant way and quickly, and we have seen it in the last budget, and also provincial governments and municipalities are doing their part. But it's not enough. First of all, we have to deal with demand.
As we all know, population growth in Canada has risen by 3.5%. Over the past year, we have seen 1.2 million people entering the country, basically over the course of breakfast. So we have a situation in which it's simply unsustainable, we cannot accept so many people. And I'm not talking about new immigrants here. I'm talking about mostly non permanent residents, I'm talking about mostly foreign students. We simply cannot accept so many if we cannot house them, they are putting a lot of pressure on the rental market.
So we suggested and we were very vocal about it, that we need to cap the number of foreign students until we have a situation in which the housing market is more stable. And the government is doing it, they are capping the number from 6.5% of the population to 5% of the population, which is significant. This is going to reduce population growth from 3.5% to about 1%, which is the long term average. So that's very healthy, that's very important. And that's very positive.
Another factor, of course, is supply. We need much more supply, and very quickly. And it's not just about homeownership, it's also about rental, as we discussed in previous occasions. I believe that we have to change the way people think about rental activity, we have to change the way Canadians see rental. And if you rent at the age of 30, you're not a failure.
This is what we see in Manhattan, in London and Berlin, and many other international cities. We have to realize that we need much more supply of rental units in order to tackle this affordability crisis that we're facing.
Carissa: Yeah, absolutely. And it absolutely is different in other countries. And it is in some cases, it could be a choice. But to be able to have that supply is really important. Like let's switch a little bit to the real estate market. Specifically, I read in one of your reports regarding the real estate market that we are approaching a buyer's market with no buyers. Canadians, it seems, are sitting on the sidelines.
And you know, that's from some insights that are out there waiting to buy or sell a home. So if I'm a buyer, what experience should I be prepared for in this current market? Like do I have more labor with negotiations? And what if I'm a seller?
Benjamin: That's a very good question. We have seen a situation a year ago, in which demand for housing and many buyers went up. But sellers were sitting on their hands doing nothing. Now the opposite is the case. We see more listings coming to the market, but buyers are taking their time. And therefore this is basically a buyers market with not really too many buyers willing to actually sign the check.
Now the question is what's coming, I believe that this is a tale of two markets. This is a tale of detached housing, namely, low rise versus the condo market. Let's start with the detached segment of the market, low rise. This is going to be very tight, because we don't see too many people actually getting into the market. There is no inventories in the market. And therefore prices actually are going to go up over the next few years and definitely over the next 12 months.
So the detached segment of the market, low rise, is actually going to be very tight. That's not the case for the condo space. Why? Because we have seen the situation in which you know, developers are not building. Pre-sell activity, pre-construction activity is basically dead. It's zero, developers cannot build because it doesn't make sense to them to build so they are not doing anything. So they're trying to get rid of what inventories they have.
The demand is not there, because 50% of the condo market is basically investors and investors are not in the market with interest rates so high, and especially if you can get a 5%, 6% for GIC. So they're not in this market. Demand for condos went down, the supply is still there. And therefore we see an opportunity for condo buyers to get to the market because it will be a soft market over the next 12 months.
However, next year, the year after, two years from now, the demand will still be there. But the supply will not be there because we are not building now what's supposed to be the supply two years from now. You don't have to be an economist to predict what will happen to prices. Condo prices two years from now, three years from now will go up. In between we have an opportunity of a softening market until the inventories are clear.
Carissa: Yeah, and that could be possibly an opportunity to look at that market in this case. And I know when you mentioned investors, I mean, I've read a few reports and it all speaks to investors having strain on their cash flow and negative cash flow positions. And that's what's fueling a lot of these listings. Will that continue?
Benjamin: Yes, we estimate and we are going to release a paper about that, that about 60 to 70% of investors are now in negative cash flow. So they really don't have the motivation to stay in the market. They are selling them they're not buying, especially given the fact that the alternative is much better: GIC rate is 5 or 6%. So why worry about the economy market if you can make nice money doing something else?
That will be the case for the next 12, 18 months. And therefore with no demand and supply still in the market, I see the condo space relatively soft. After that we get to see it's starting to go down and no supply in the market, you will see investors going back into the market, but that will be a year from now, two years from now.
Carissa: Okay, so let's talk about those investors. Maybe in the seller's mindset with the 2024 federal budget, it includes a proposal to change the capital gains tax. This has caught some off guard, maybe angered many.
But with these changes, the capital gains inclusion rate is going to rise from 50 to 67 for people with more than 250,000 in capital gains. Now, what do you think the impact is going to be to the real estate market? And what do investors or people — you know, thinking about selling — what do they have to consider?
Benjamin: Yes, I think it's a negative development, quite frankly, for the market and the economy as a whole, quite frankly. When you introduce a new tax, you reduce the ability of the economy to move in a dynamic way. And that's exactly what we are seeing now. We know that many self-employed, new company, startups in the tech sector, will be discouraged by this development and will not even open shop in Canada, reducing demand for real estate.
Another factor is in the US they do the opposite. In the USA alone, there is something called a 10-31 exchange in which if you sell a property, real estate property, commercial real estate property, you send the asset, you get the money and you invest it in another real estate asset. You don't pay tax. In Canada, we're actually increasing the tax.
So that's another negative factor impacting the ability of the sector to advance and compete in this environment. So I see it as a negative development, unfortunately.
Carissa: Yeah. So it's really important to get yourself up to date on what this means and how it could impact your financial decision for sure. So the hottest topic is interest rates. And I think everybody's, you know, patiently waiting, or maybe not so patiently waiting.
So let's talk about the factors influencing this. Like coming into 2024, it looked a little more optimistic that the Bank of Canada was going to cut rates enough to make a considerable impact. June is fast approaching, which is the next rate decision and we haven't seen a rate cut yet. Is the view much more conservative now for 2024?
Benjamin: The short answer is no, really, because I think that the market is expecting the Bank of Canada to move in June or July. Now I believe that if the Bank of Canada was an AI machine, they will have stopped raising interest rates 50 basis points ago.
It seems that the Bank of Canada is overshooting by design. They want to make sure that inflation is dead before they cut interest rates and there are very good signs when it comes to inflation. The economy is definitely slowing down. We are in a per capita recession, if you wish. Per capita GDP is down by 3.5%. So we have a situation in which per capita we are already in a recession.
Clearly the economy needs lowered interest rates. So what the Bank of Canada is going to do, it's either June or July, but they will start cutting interest rates very, very soon. The question is how quickly and by how much. Here, we have an issue, because the US economy is doing extremely well, much better than the Canadian economy. The US economy is almost like an emerging market, expanding by 3.5% on an annual basis.
So what happens if the Fed does not move? And the Bank of Canada needs to move? How much can the Bank of Canada can divorce itself from the Fed? That's the big question that any investor has to ask himself or herself: to what extent we are dependent on the Fed. I think for the first 50, 75 basis points, the Bank of Canada can go solo, but after that, they clearly will have to wait for the Fed in order to protect the value of the Canadian dollar and prevent it from falling significantly.
Our forecast is the Bank of Canada will start in June or July, will go three or four times in the second half of 2024, and the Fed will start in September and maybe once more in December. So over all twice while the Bank of Canada three or four times. Now the question is our low interest rates will go.
So we are where we started this saga at 1.75%. We are at 5% now. We'll wait until June or July, will start going down into mid late 2025. And by then we see the overnight rate in Canada at around 3%. So notably higher than when we started this at 1.75%.
Why? Because in the background, there are four inflationary forces cooking. We used to have a globalization now we have deglobalization. And if we have Trump winning, it will be even more than that. We used to have just in time inventories. Now we have just in case inventories. That's inflationary. We used to have a labor market that was giving. Now the labor market is tight, that's inflationary. And let's face it, many of those good initiatives — they are all inflationary.
So all those forces are inflationary, there is more inflation in the system, the target is still 2%, it's not going to change. 2% is a target. So same target, more inflation, clearly, the neutral rate of interest is going to be, I say, around 3%. And that will remind you that this real estate market can excel and do extremely well in this environment of 3%. If we know the trajectory. So that's the direction we're going.
Carissa: And like through this journey to 3%. At what amount of interest rate cuts, you mentioned, 50 to 75, within the I'm gonna say shorter term, what amount do you think is needed to start to feel the market and start to make an impact for Canadians?
Benjamin: That's a very important question. Because we know what happened in the spring of 2023, we have seen a situation in which the Bank of Canada back then was only tweeting about keeping interest rates stable, and the crazy real estate market went up significantly, as you all know. And the spring of 2023, was very, very strong.
Now, the fear of the Bank of Canada is that what happens if they start cutting interest rates, and this real estate market will take off again, but at the same time, they know that the Bank of Canada cannot determine the trajectory of the real estate market. What they have to focus on is inflation. And therefore, they are going to take the risk of the real estate market waking up when interest rates go down. But they have to do it because inflation is the target, not the housing market.
So I believe that when they start cutting interest rates, we are going to see a wave of optimism in the housing market; the worst is over. I don't think that the spring would be extremely strong. Affordability is still an issue. But I think that the fall of this year would be relatively strong. So it just takes a little bit longer.
Carissa: I'd love your opinion on this part. Like I know, you said things are softening. But there's been a lot of growth within the Canadian economy and the Canadian consumer has been fueling a lot of that growth. How will the Canadian consumer impact inflation through spending? Like are things really starting to tighten up? What will be the Canadian sentiment?
Benjamin: Yes, that's a very good question, we have seen a situation in which the consumer was really the only force in the economy that kept the economy going. Remember, we are still in the per capita recession. And the only reason why the economy was barely above zero is because of the huge increase in immigration and strong consumption growth.
Now remember, some of this consumption growth was fueled by excess savings, $350 billion of extra savings from the pandemic. Now these savings now is basically zero. So the consumer cannot be any longer the buffer, protecting the economy from higher interest rates. And that's important. Another factor — a big number of those consumers are mortgage holders, and they are going to renew their mortgages over the next year or two. So they know that it's going to be a significant increase in their payments.
So what to do? You have to prepare. And to prepare, you increase your savings, and therefore the savings rates going up, consumption going down. That's why this economy is very close to zero GDP growth. And that's more or less where we're going to be over the next six months.
That's exactly what the Bank of Canada will need to see. They need to see a situation which the economy is responding to lower interest rates, and the consumer is 70% of the economy, we need to see the consumer slowing down, and that's exactly what's happening. So I think that for the next six months, the consumer will slow down. That will allow the Bank of Canada to start cutting interest rates.
Carissa: Okay. And you talked about mortgage renewals, which is another big topic. So there is approximately 800 billion to $1 trillion ish worth of mortgages coming up for maturity between 2025 and 2027 in Canada, and everybody will renew — almost everybody. I'll put the caveat there — at higher rates. This year, about 14% of Canadians with mortgages are set to renew. So the average Canadians approach to renewal is very different today than it was years ago, like the considerations are much different. So there's a lot on Canadians' minds.
So two of the biggest things for them is anticipated mortgage renewal at a higher rate, and what terms and conditions of a mortgage that they're going to renew into, should they really be going into fixed versus variable 5, 10 year. What are your thoughts here? And what should Canadians consider, especially if they're renewing within, you know, the next year or so?
Benjamin: That’s a very good question. The good news is that 50% of owners already renewed their mortgages. The bad news, another 50% would have to renew over the next two years. The increase in spending, extra spending would be significant — on average about 25%. But these 25% includes those homeowners that actually renewed a year ago, and therefore, actually will stay to see what’s going down and they'll payments going down, the rest will see an increase of about 35 to 40%, which is very significant.
We're starting to see delinquency rates rising, especially in the subprime space. That's a leading indicators for some issues. And that's why banks are putting money aside to make sure that we know what to do when it happens. Banks are very good in negotiating this kind of situation with people that are in delinquency rates. And in fact, if you look at the delinquency rate between 60 to 90 days, it's falling, reflecting the ability of banks to negotiate new terms.
So I believe that this is a shock that the economy will have to deal with, it's not a 2008 scenario, by any stretch of the imagination, we're talking about a totally different environment. However, I think that [unclear][1] over the next year, you have to renew, you have to think about where interest rates are going. The direction is down, especially your short term interest rates would be going down over the next year.
So what do you want to do? Well, it depends on your situation, of course, depends on your risk appetite. But in general, it would be not a bad idea to try to buy time to take a short term mortgage, namely one, maybe two years mortgages by the time and then ride the variable rate mortgages later and take advantage of the fact that the trajectory would be downward as opposed to upward.
Carissa: That's very good advice. And connecting with an advisor is important, because they'll be able to show you the impact of all of that, and you know, the different situations and different impact to your finances. Because to your point, if we're on the downward trajectory; there's a lot to consider, right? And so especially based on needs and the length of terms, etc.
So Ben, thank you so much for joining me today, you have given us so much to walk away with but I think most importantly, you've given us a lot of good golden nuggets, if you will, to really think about. Like I said Canadians have a lot on their minds when it comes to their financial decisions. And I think you've done a great job in helping Canadians get there. So thank you.
Benjamin: It was a pleasure. Thank you.
Carissa: Thanks so much. Whether you're a first time home buyer if you're buying or selling a home, or if your mortgage is coming up for renewal, an advisor can help you explore your choices, review your financial situation, and discuss mortgage options that suit your needs.
For more information, we've linked resources from cibc.com, including Ben's latest housing outlook in our show notes for our listeners to explore. If you want more insights from Ben, you can find his commentary on the housing market and the economy on BNN: Bloomberg and on the CIBC Capital Market Insights Hub at cibc.com.
Thank you for tuning in to this episode of smart advice. I'm currently Carissa Lucreziano. If you've enjoyed this episode. You can share it with anyone who is looking for insights on buying, selling or investing in real estate in 2024. To make sure you never miss an episode, follow Smart Advice on your favourite podcast platform. For more financial tips, visit cibc.com/smartadvice.
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